The best way to forecast forex markets is to look at the markets' internal structure.

The U.S. dollar rallied strongly against the euro in intraday trading today (August 14), pushing the exchange rate down to $1.4780 – the level it hasn't seen since February. What's behind such a persistent show of strength on the dollar's part?

As usual, it depends on whom you ask. The mainstream media forex analysts blamed the August 14 EURUSD decline on the fact that "crude oil fell and a report showed Europe's economy contracted for the first time since the 15-nation currency was introduced almost a decade ago." (Bloomberg)

If that's true, that means that in order to catch Thursday's drop in the EURUSD, you needed to know ahead of time what oil was going to do that day, and also what that European report was going to say. So, instead of trying to predict one market – the EURUSD – you now have to watch, and correctly forecast, three.

And even then you weren't guaranteed success. The dollar could have easily lost on Thursday, after the news. Can you imagine a headline saying, "Falling oil prices send the U.S. dollar down, indicating slowing U.S. consumer demand and continued economic weakness"? And, "The U.S. dollar slides as a key European report indicates the EU's economy is still growing faster that the U.S."?

That's the beauty of fundamentally-based explanations: You can spin them any way you want, using the same factors to justify both the market's rallies and declines.

But there is a way to simplify your forecasting process. In Jack D. Schwager's excellent “Market Wizards,” one famous trader summarized his success this way: “Listen to the market, it will tell you everything you need to know.” In other words, don’t let the economic data confuse you. Watch market sentiment; track momentum; look for repeating patterns in the charts, etc.

That's exactly the process Elliott Wave International's Jim Martens, the firm's Senior Currency Strategist and editor of Currency Specialty Service, used when he posted this intraday forecast for subscribers on the morning of Thursday, August 14 – about an hour before the EURUSD began to fall in earnest:
By Vadim Pokhlebkin
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24 hours a day, EWI's Currency Specialty Service brings you forecasts of all major forex markets. Details.

In this article I will show you how to develop a good money management discipline in FX trading without risking more than 5% per trade.

Let's say you intend to use 5,000 dollars as your starting capital to trade the Forex market. (Before I proceed further, what do you think with that amount of money, should you open a mini or a standard account?) Although per pip for a standard lot cost 10 dollars if you were to trade GBPUSD currency pair, but that doesn't mean that you can open a standard account with 5,000 dollars. So my recommendation is to open a mini account with per pip cost at 1 dollar.

Before deciding how much you want to risk per trade, you should start with how much you are willing to lose per month, so to withstand any possible drawdown. Since we are starting with only 5,000 dollars as capital, I would suggest a maximum cap as high as 10% risk per month, which is 500 dollars. So now we know that we can only trade with 500 dollars a month* even though we have 5,000 as capital. The next step is to determine your risk per trade.

Once we know that we can only risk 500 dollars in a month, and then you can decide how much you prefer to risk per trade. To simplify calculation, let's say we decide to set the risk per trade at 5% of 500 dollars, so that means in a mini account, 25 dollars is equivalent to 25 pips. Once you have decided that this would be your money management, the next is to look out for trade setup not risking more than 25 pips, and only if both conditions agree, then you enter the trade.

In all, a FX trader should possess three important elements in order to trade profitably. That is you need to adopt a disciplined mindset, developed a proper money management and together with a good trading system, you should be able to trade with confidence and see your trading account grow.

*This money management means that in order to wipe out the trading account, you have to lose ten consecutive months of trading to burn that entire 5,000 dollars. Is that possible? Yes, if you don't have a profitable trading system. If you have a profitable trading system (you may want to consider using my trading system), it is very unlikely that you have such a disastrous run.

Wilson Neo is a private currency trader and regular contributor to the website http://www.fxoperator.com

Euro Drops As ECB Leaves Rates at 4.25%, Trichet Increasingly Bearish On Economy and War Russian and Geogia last Friday

Time Frame Daily Complete Correction

Daily Chart show bearish movement to more 400 ~ 500 pips to completion correction.
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Time Frame H1 Wave

Wave at Time frame H1 now to find wave 5

Wave 5 projection forecast at price 1.4592 but need to breach 1.4824

Wave Already Complete 5 and Projection price A reach. Now turning to wave B

In Forex trading the bottom line is profits and profits are counted in PIPs. When you enter a trade in the Forex or FX market you are trading on what is called a currency pair (or pairs for short). These pairs are nothing more than the relationship between two separate currencies. For instance if you are looking at the Euro (EUR/USD) you are watching the exchange rate between the Euro and the US dollar.

The currency exchange rate is always one number with decimal places and they are expressed in measures of ten-thousandths of a unit and this ten-thousandth is called a "pip."

So in our Euro trading example above if the pair was quoted at 1.4525 then it means that it takes $1.4525 to purchase a single Euro at the currently quoted exchange rate. Or said another way you pay one buck and 45.25 cents for each Euro.

When it comes to making a profit from the Forex markets you have to have an increase in price from the time you purchased to the time you sold your specific currency pair. So from our example if you purchased at 1.4525 and the pair increased to 1.4530 you would have an increase of 5 pips. This would be a relatively minor shift as a move of 20 or more pips is not that uncommon.

The question burning on your mind is probably how much does that change my bank account? Well that has to do with the lot size of the currency you are trading. But lets say that you were trading on a lot size of 10,000 so you are controlling 10,000 USD and the current exchange rate were a nice round 1.50 so for each shift of a pip you would gain or lose $1.50

Now don't let the $10,000 figure scare you because most Forex brokers only require a small deposit on the total lot size. This means that you are using financial leverage to your advantage. So instead of making a measly $10 on 10,000 risk you are only asked to put up say $50 or $100 deposit on each Fx trade. This means that your return on investment (ROI) is considerably higher, however it also means that when losses come they affect you with equally severe rates. So use margins wisely.

By Nigel Banks

This article is dedicated for new forex traders. I am going to show you how to control your forex capital using simple money management tips. I can't say it more enough, money management plays a key role in your success or failure with your forex trading. This is not just words, a bad money management can easily ruin your forex capital.

How to Apply Money Management

I believe the best way to learn new things is by practicing and examples. Let us assume that you have a capital of $1,000 (One thousand U.S. dollars) in your forex trading account. You need to set certain rules and apply them to your trading, those rules are:

Size Per Trade

You must put a rule for yourself, for your lifetime trading which is size per trade. How? You need to ask yourself, how many U.S. dollars you are going to use per trade? and how many trades can be left open at a single time? Enough questions, let me answer you.

A $100 trade would possibly have a $1 pip value, trading with leverage of 100:1. So never trade more than 10% of your entire forex account at a time. I am serious about this, all your open trades combined should not exceed 10% of your account. So in our case, you can trade a maximum of $100 from your $1000 at the same time (All Your Trades Combined).

But be careful, if you have a bigger leverage (more than 100:1) with your broker, you need to take down the trade value. Try to keep the total pip value for all trades near $1 or less for a $1,000 account. This step is very serious and trust me it is going to help you in your new forex journey.

Risk Per Trade

This step is mandatory. You must know how much loss or gain you are going to accept. Otherwise, your trade could just loss forever, until all your money is gone! So do not do this mistake, it is very very common. Planning is key to success, plan everything before you start. Oh, show me example please. OK!

Let us say I have $1000, and I bought (longed) Euro/Dollar at 1.5000 rate, the trade is worth $100, and the pip is worth $1. I decided to take a Gain:Loss ratio of 1.5:1. So If I put my stoploss at 1.4950, my TakeProfit would be at 1.5075. Risk (What I can afford to loss) is 50 pips or $50. (5% of your account which is an average for many trades. Some traders even risk 2% only though.) Gain is 75 pips (1.5 X 50) or $75.

Basically that above example shows you how to apply money management rules to your stoploss and takeprofit levels. But now I have some important and real important notes for you.

Important Notes

A. You must plan your trade, put your take profit and your stop loss.
B. The above example risks 5% of your account per trade. But many trades risk only 2% per trade. Just do not over risk your capital.
C. Leverage heavily modify money management parameters. I highly recommend avoiding any broker with a leverage higher than 100:1.
D. The Gain:Loss ratio will be different from a trader to another. In plain words, it is the ratio which controls how much you are willing to risk, to make a certain gain. Your gain ratio should exceed your loss ratio but to be honest it depends on your technique and which system you are using. I will talk about that in later articles.

A Word for New Traders

If you have a technique with 50% accuracy. Yes, only 50% accuracy and a Gain/Loss ratio of 2:1. That means you are making profits on the long run. In theory, things are simple but to do this practical, you need to be a restrict person about your trading experience. Some people have no discipline at all and you can't blame me for that.

Okay good. Now what we've learnt together in this article?

1. Never risk more than 10% of your account per all open trades.
2. Plan your trade, stoploss, and take profit levels.
3. Never! Never risk more than 2-5% of your account per all open trades.
4. According to your system, your gain ratio should well exceed your loss ratio.
Article by Ahmed Fouad, BlogForex.info. Forex web log with news, commentary, and education center.